Mortgage Rate Updates 6-30-09

Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite early stock losses and weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets are in selling mode after digesting this morning's economic news with the Dow down 105 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently down 9/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. 

The Conference Board gave us today's only relevant economic data when they posted June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning. They reported a reading of 49.3 that was well below forecasts of 55.1. This means that consumers were much less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is actually supposed to be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates since it indicates consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the near future. Unfortunately for mortgage shoppers, bond traders seem to have forgotten that this morning.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business worsened in the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are expecting a reading of 44.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business improved slightly from the previous month. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading.

Thursday brings us the release of two monthly reports, one being the extremely important Employment report. The other, May's Factory Order's data will likely have little impact on the financial markets or mortgage rates as most of the attention will be directed towards the employment figures.

The financial markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Ind ependence Day holiday, but there will be no early close for the bond market Thursday as has been the case previous years. However, it will still probably be a light afternoon in trading as traders head home for the long weekend. This could magnify the reaction the markets will have to the morning's data.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-29-09

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory as investors prepare for this week's economic news. The stock markets have opened the holiday-shortened week in positive ground with the Dow up 74 points and the Nasdaq up 5 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly.

This week brings us the release of only four economic reports for the markets to digest, but three of them are considered to be important and one of those three is arguably the most influential report we see each month. In addition, these reports are being released over just three trading days. 

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the first report of the week and will be posted late tomorrow morning. This index is important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending make s up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 55.1, up slightly from last month's 54.9 reading.

Overall, tomorrow and Wednesday's data (Consumer Confidence Index and ISM index) should bring some volatility in trading and mortgage rates, but Thursday's Employment report is definitely the most important of the week. Its impact can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week. 

The financial markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, but there will be no early close for the bond market Thursday as has been the case previous years. However, it will still probably be a light afternoon in trading as traders head home for the long weekend.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-28-09

This week brings us the release of only four economic reports for the markets to digest, but three of them are considered to be important and one of those three is arguably the most influential report we see each month. In addition, those four reports are being released over just three trading days. There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow and the markets are closed Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday, leaving the middle calendar days the focus of the week. 

June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is the first report of the week. It will be posted late Tuesday morning. It is important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows a sizable increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading o f 55.1, up slightly from last month's 54.9 reading.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late Wednesday morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business worsened in the month than those who felt it had improved. Analysts are expecting a reading of 44.0. That would indicate that manufacturers felt business improved slightly from the previous month. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a weaker than expected reading.

The remaining two reports will be released Thursday morning. The Labor Department will post June's unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings early Thursday. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a large decline in payrolls and no change in earnings. Weaker than expected readings would likely help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Thursday. However, stronger than expected readings could be extremely detrimental for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate rise 0.2% to 9.6%, while 370,000 jobs were lost and a 0.2% rise in earnings.

The Commerce Department will post May's Factory Orders data late Thursday morning, which is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week. The biggest difference is that this week's report covers both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn't have as much of an impact on the bond market as the durable goods data does, but can lead to changes in mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts. Current expectations are showing a 0.2% rise in new orders from April's levels. A smaller than expected rise in orders would be consi dered good news for the bond market and could help lower mortgage rates slightly Thursday. However, the employment data is much more important to the markets than this report is.

Overall, Tuesday and Wednesday's data should bring some volatility in trading and mortgage rates, but Thursday's Employment report is definitely the most important of the week. Its impact can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week. There is no early close for the bond market Thursday as previous years, but it will probably be a light afternoon in trading as traders head home for the long weekend. This could lead to additional volatility during morning trading, so I strongly recommend that you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-26-09

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory again despite stronger than expected results in this morning's economic data. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 56 points and the Nasdaq down 5 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage rates.

May's Personal Income and Outlays data was posted early this morning, revealing a 1.4% jump in income and a 0.3% rise in spending. The spending reading was very close to revised forecasts, but the income reading greatly exceeded forecasts. However, a good portion of that increase was due higher unemployment limits and revised payroll withholdings. Therefore, analysts are taking the spike in stride and not with fear that wage inflation is a threat.

The second report of the day also gave us a stronger than expected reading. The revised reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June came in at 70.8. This was nearly two points higher than forecasts and indicates that consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than earlier thought. That is considered negative news for bonds because rising sentiment usually means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic activity.

Yesterday's 7-year Treasury Note sale was also met with a strong demand from investors. Wednesday's 5-year sale went well, helping to set the stage for yesterday's sale. This helped boost bond prices during afternoon trading and eases some concerns about the supply of debt being sold by the Fed, at least temporarily.

Next week is likely to be a very active week for the markets and mortgage rates. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday and the markets are closed Friday in observance of the Independence Day holiday. But, in between are several relevant and important reports with one of them being the almighty monthly Employment report. Look Sunday's weekly preview to detail those reports and their potential impact on mortgage pricing.

Read more...

AZ Tea Parties & Taxpayer Town Halls in July

Dear Arizona Taxpayer,
 
Below are listings of Tea Parties and AFPF Taxpayer Town Halls in July.
 
But first…  Tomorrow (Friday, June 26), from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. at the Doubletree PV Resort at 5401 N. Scottsdale Road, the Orange Coalition is holding a conference on private property rights.  With so many legislators tied up down at the Capitol, organizer Laura Knaperek tells us that there are many spaces available, for no charge.  To RSVP for the event (or even to come by for the luncheon speaker), email lknaperek@orangeaz.org <mailto:lknaperek@orangeaz.org> .  
 
Link to the Orange Coalition conference flyer:
http://www.americansforprosperity.org/files/orangesymposium_0.pdf
 
 
Tea Parties

Here is a web page with a link to all of the July 4th Tea Parties we know about so far:
 
http://www.americansforprosperity.org/042109-upcoming-events-afp-arizona
 
If any additions or corrections need to be made to our Tea Party list, please contact infoAZ@afphq.org <mailto:infoAZ@afphq.org>  by noon on Saturday (June 27).  Disclaimer: AFPF is not a sponsor of any of these tea parties; we are providing this list as a service to the public.
 
 
AFPF Taxpayer Town Halls

Date:               Thursday, July 16
Time:               7:00 to 9:00 p.m.
Event:              Southeast Valley Taxpayer Town Hall
Location:         San Tan Flat Steakhouse*       http://www.santanflat.com/
Leg. Dist(s):    LDs 21, 22, & 23  (Gilbert, Chandler, Queen Creek)
Speakers:         Legislators, Dr. Eric Novack (Health Care Reform)
 
*Come early and have dinner.  Also, be sure to read about the Institute for Justice’s successful defense of San Tan Flat against Pinal County’s anti-dancing ordinance:
http://www.ij.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2331&Itemid=165
 
 
Date:               Friday, July 17
Time:               6:00 to 8:00 p.m.
Event:             Pinetop-Show Low Taxpayer Town Hall
Location:         Branding Iron Steakhouse, 1261 E. Duece of Clubs, Show Low
Co-Sponsor:    White Mountain Independent
Leg. Dist(s):    Leg. Dist. 5  (Apache, Gila, Graham, Greenlee Counties)
Speakers:         Legislators (Sen. Sylvia Allen is confirmed so far),
Dr. Matthew Ladner, Goldwater Institute (Education Reform)
 
 
Date:               Thursday, July 23
Time:               7:00 to 9:00 p.m.
Event:             Northeast Valley Taxpayer Town Hall
Location:         TBA (Vicinity of 101 and Tatum)
Leg. Dist(s):    LDs 6, 7, & 8  (North-Central Phoenix, Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Carefree)
Speakers:         Legislators, Dr. Byron Schlomach, Goldwater Institute (Health Care Reform)
 
 
Date:               Friday, July 24
Time:               6:00 to 8:00 p.m.
Event:             Sedona Taxpayer Town Hall
Location:         TBA
Leg. Dist(s):    Leg. Dist. 1  (Yavapai County)
Speakers:         Legislators, Dr. Byron Schlomach, Goldwater Institute (Health Care Reform),
Dr. Matthew Ladner, Goldwater Institute, (Education Reform)
 
 
We post updated lists of town hall events at this web page:
 
http://www.americansforprosperity.org/042109-upcoming-events-afp-arizona

For Liberty,
 
--Tom
 
Tom Jenney
Arizona Director
Americans for Prosperity Foundation
www.aztaxpayers.org
tjenney@afphq.org
(602) 478-0146

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-25-09

Thursday's bond market has opened up slightly despite no highly important economic data on the calendar today and a positive opening in stocks. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 34 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32 from yesterday's close, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

This morning's release of the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP didn't reveal any significant surprises. It showed that the economy contracted at a 5.5% annual rate during the first three months of the year. This was a small upward revision from the previous estimate of a decline of 5.7%, meaning that the economy did not shrink as much as previously thought. However, since this data is old now (second quarter initial reading comes next month), the size of the revision was not enough to influence bond trading or mortgage rates.
The Labor Department gave us last week's unemployment figures, reporting that 627,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was an increase from the previous week's revised total of 612,000 and much higher than forecasts of 600,000. But, as with today's GDP reading, this data is not considered to be of high importance to the markets or mortgage rates.

Also worth noting is today's 7-year Treasury Note sale. Yesterday's 5-year Note sale went pretty well, but the FOMC statement took center stage during afternoon trading. If today's sale is also met with a good demand from investors, we may see bond prices rise later today and mortgage rates move lower. Results will be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

Tomorrow morning has two reports on its calendar. May's Personal Income and Outlays data will be posted early morning. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.2% in income and a 0.4% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller than expected increases should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. 

The second report of the day and the last relevant data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. An upward revision from the preliminary reading of 69.0 would be considered a negative for bonds. The earlier data is the more important of tomorrow's two releases.

Read more...

AFP Arizona Update on Tax & Budget Bills at the Capitol

24 June 2009                           
 
Dear Arizona Taxpayer,
 
The Arizona chapter of Americans for Prosperity thanks those members of the Arizona Legislature who have (so far) resisted Gov. Jan Brewer’s efforts to raise sales and property taxes to deal with the Napolitano Deficit, which was caused by rampant overspending during the past six years.
 
(If you haven’t called the Governor’s office yet this week, please do.  Her number is (602) 542-4331.  She needs to keep hearing from taxpayers who do not want their taxes raised!)

Although the House-Senate budget that passed on June 4 is not without flaws, and although it falls short of achieving a true structural balance in the FY2010 budget, it is less unbalanced than the alternatives, and avoids the catastrophic error of raising sales and property taxes during a recession.  
 
Back in January, AFP Arizona set forth a Reform Arizona Plan <http://www.americansforprosperity.org/files/afpazscorecardmemo010809.pdf>  to reduce the state’s gigantic deficit, prevent tax increases, avoid taking on debt that will hurt future taxpayers, and implement reforms to bring government spending under control for the long term.  AFP Arizona incorporated the elements of the Reform Arizona Plan into its 2009 Legislative Scorecard rubric, and set a high bar for achievement by the new Legislative leadership and the new Governor.
 
Thus far, a majority of legislators has achieved significant policy victories and implemented key elements of the Reform Arizona Plan:
 

• made significant general fund spending cuts totaling over $1 billion for FYs 09 and 10;
  

• referred to the 2010 ballot a proposition that would lower the state’s existing spending limit to 6.4 percent of personal income (the current limit of 7.41 percent is too high to put meaningful restraints on spending);
  

• resisted (so far) the efforts of Gov. Brewer to raise sales and property taxes;
  

• passed an education tax credit for special-needs children; and,
  

• referred to the 2010 ballot the Health Care Freedom Act, a proposition which would prevent governments in Arizona from interfering with the relationship between patients and the doctors and health plans of their choice.
  

Several key bills are still in play as we approach the final week of the Session:
 

• transparency reform for local government, which would require cities, counties and school districts to post on the internet the amounts and vendors for all disbursements;
  

• legislation that would require the Arizona Treasurer to certify whether the state budgets are in legal compliance with the constitutional requirement for a balanced budget and with the state’s constitutional spending limit;
  

• legislation allowing workers to contribute to private-school scholarships through their withholding, which would make it easier for them to contribute and qualify for the STO tax credit;
  

• legislation allowing private companies to finance, construct, operate and maintain new road capacity; and,  
  

• labor reforms that would preserve a worker’s right to a private ballot, and protect workers from having their union dues go to support political causes with which they do not agree.
  

One important reform that got held up in the House Banking and Insurance Committee this spring was a bill that would allow Arizona consumers to have access to cheaper insurance plans available in other states.  Making private health insurance more affordable through interstate competition and commerce will help to keep the working poor (and the not-so-poor) out of government-subsidized health plans such as AHCCCS (Medicaid).  
 
Here is the updated scoring template for AFP Arizona’s 2009 Legislative Scorecard:
http://www.americansforprosperity.org/files/raptemplate6-24-9.pdf
 
If they can hold the line against tax hikes, the majority legislators should end up as Champions of the Taxpayer on AFP Arizona’s 2009 Legislative Scorecard.  We have projected their scores in this table (“Legislator X”):
 
http://www.americansforprosperity.org/files/raplegx6-24-9.pdf
 
Legislators who vote to refer a sales tax increase to the ballot and raise property taxes could find themselves designated as Friends of Big Government (see “Legislator Y”):
 
http://www.americansforprosperity.org/files/raplegy6-24-9.pdf
 
The designations for the 2009 AFP Arizona Legislative Scorecard will be as follows:
 
90-100% = Hero of the Taxpayer
80-89% = Champion of the Taxpayer
70-79% = Friend of the Taxpayer
60-69% = Adequate
50-59% = Needs Improvement
30-49% = Friend of Big Government
10-29% = Champion of Big Government
0-9% = Hero of Big Government
 
For Liberty,
 
--Tom
 
Tom Jenney
Arizona Director
Americans for Prosperity
(Arizona Federation of Taxpayers)
www.aztaxpayers.org
tjenney@afphq.org
(602) 478-0146

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-24-09 Afternoon

The FOMC meeting has adjourned with no change to key short-term interest rates. The post meeting statement indicated that the economy is still weakening, but at a slower pace. This leads the Fed to be optimistic that the economy is stabilizing. It also said that they expect "inflation will remain subdued for some time." The inflation news is very good for bonds but the fact they felt the economy may be stabilizing offset the inflation words.

The stock and bond markets have reacted negatively to the news with the Dow giving back all of this morning's gains to currently stand down 34 points. The Nasdaq has fallen off earlier highs but is still in positive territory. The bond market has slipped further into negative ground despite a strong 5-year Treasury Note auction today. It is now down 11/32, which will likely cause many lenders to revise their rates slightly higher this afternoon. However, some may op t to wait until the morning's data and market open to reflect that loss.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8% last month. This was much stronger than the 0.9% decline that was expected and the third increase in orders out of the past four months. This indicates that manufacturing activity, at least in big-ticket items such as machinery, vehicles and electronics, is strengthening quicker than many had thought. This would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

May's New Home Sales was also released this morning, showing that sales of newly constructed homes fell slightly last month. Analysts were expecting to see a small increase in sales. However, this data only represents approximately 25% of all home sales, so its impact on trading and mortgage rates is usually minimal unless its results vary greatly from forecasts.

The only relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow is the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The GDP data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month's first revision showed a 5.7% decline in the GDP. This month's second and final revision is expected to show the same decline.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-24-09

Wednesday's bond market has opened down slightly following early stock gains and a much stronger than expected manufacturing report. The stock markets are showing early strength with the Dow up 98 points and the Nasdaq up 38 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will likely still see an improvement of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates due to gains late yesterday.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that Durable Goods Orders rose 1.8% last month. This was much stronger than the 0.9% decline that was expected and the third increase in orders out of the past four months. This indicates that manufacturing activity, at least in big-ticket items such as machinery, vehicles and electronics, is strengthening quicker than many had thought. This would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

May's New Home Sales was also released this morning, showing that sales of newly constru cted homes fell slightly last month. Analysts were expecting to see a small increase in sales. However, this data only represents approximately 25% of all home sales, so its impact on trading and mortgage rates is usually minimal unless its results vary greatly from forecasts.

This week's FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, market participants will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any hint of what and when the Fed's next move may be. Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have an opportunity to react to what the Fed says.

The only relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow is the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The GDP data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricin g unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month's first revision showed a 5.7% decline in the GDP. This month's second and final revision is expected to show the same decline.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-23-09

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again after this morning's economic data showed weaker than expected results and the stock markets are posting early losses. The major stock indexes are in negative ground with the Dow down 35 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The National Association of Realtors announced this morning that home resales rose 2.4% last month. This was an increase from April's sales, but was a smaller rise than analysts had expected. This indicates that the housing sector did improve last month, but at a slower pace than many had thought. Generally speaking, a softening housing sector makes an economic recovery that much more difficult, which helps to keep bonds more attractive to investors. However, this particular data is not considered to be one of the more important reports we see e ach month. Therefore, its impact on trading and mortgage rates is usually fairly minimal.

This week's FOMC meeting began today but will not adjourn until tomorrow afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy or inflation, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing tomorrow afternoon. 

May's Durable Goods Orders is the more important of tomorrow's two reports. It gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expe cted to show a decline of 0.9% in new orders from April to May. A larger decline would be the ideal scenario for the bond market and could lead to a decline in mortgage pricing tomorrow.

Also tomorrow is the release of May's New Home Sales that is similar to today's Existing Home Sales report. This report tells us how well sales of newly constructed homes were last month. It is also expected to show a rise in sales, but will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data is considered to be of low importance to the markets.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-22-09

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following heavy selling in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week with the Dow down 135 points and the Nasdaq down 43 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point over Friday's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow brings us the first data with the release of May's Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors will give us figures on last month's home resales. This data helps us measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it is one of the lesser important reports of the week. It is expected to show an increase in sales from April to May.

The FOMC meeting that begins tomorrow will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy or inflation, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon. 

Overall, there are six reports scheduled for release this week in addition to the FOMC meeting. The most active day should be Wednesday due to the importance of the data and FOMC meeting. Friday's news may also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days. This would definitely be a good week to maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional.

Also worth noting is the fact that the Fed will be selling $104 billion in new debt this week. These sales may influence trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There are sales every day except Friday but the two most likely to affect rates are Wednesday and Thursday's sales. If they are met with a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise some during afternoon trading. This could lead to afternoon improvements to mortgage rates. But, if the sales draw a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage rates may move higher during afternoon trading.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-22-09

This week will likely prove to be very active in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are six economic reports scheduled for release, but in addition to the data another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held and another round of Treasury sales are on the calendar. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Tuesday brings us the first data with the release of May's Existing Home Sales report. The National Association of Realtors will give us figures on home resales. This data helps us measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but it is one of the week's less important reports. It is expected to show an increase in sales from April to May.

The only important release scheduled for Wednesday is May's Durable G oods Orders, which gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expected to show a decline of 0.5% in new orders from April to May. A larger decline would be the ideal scenario for the bond market and could lead to a decline in mortgage pricing Wednesday.

Also Wednesday is the release of May's New Home Sales that is similar to Tuesday's Existing Home Sales report. This report tells us how well sales of newly constructed homes were last month. It is also expected to show a rise in sales, but will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates because this data is considered to be of low importance to the markets.

The FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday afternoon will adjourn Wednesday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it i s the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy or inflation, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon. 

The only relevant economic data scheduled for release Thursday is the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The GDP data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month's first revision showed a 5.7% decline in the GDP. This month's second and final revision is expected to the same decline.

May's Personal Income and Outlays data will be posted Friday morning. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. Anal ysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.2% in income and a 0.4% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller than expected increases should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. 

The second report of the day and the last important data of the week will come from the University of Michigan who will update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. An upward revision would be considered a negative for bonds.

Also worth noting is the fact that the Fed will be selling $104 billion in new debt this week. These sales may influence trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There are sales every day except Friday but the two most likely to affect rates are Wednesday and Thursday's sales. If they are met with a strong demand, we could see bond prices rise some during afternoon trading. This could lead to afternoon improvements to mortgage rates. But, the sales draw a lackluster interest from investors, mortgage ra tes may move higher during afternoon trading.

Overall, tomorrow will likely be the quietest day of the week. The most active should be Wednesday due to the importance of the data and FOMC meeting. Friday's news may also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days. This would definitely be a good week to maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-21-09

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory as investors digest the week's events. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 50 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. This makes it likely that bonds will be influenced mostly by changes in the stock markets today. As long as the major stock indexes remain calm, I would expect bonds and mortgage rates to follow suit. If the stock markets give back this morning's gains, bonds may react favorably as the day goes on. However, afternoon weakness seems to be routine lately so we should go into the weekend with a cautious approach.

Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases. There are several scheduled for release that may influence mortgage pricing, but we also have an FOMC meeting on the calendar next week. In addition to those items, there is another round of Treasury auctions on the agenda that may also affect bond trading and mortgage rates.

None of the economic data or relevant events take place on Monday, so look for it to be a day of preparation for the week's events. Unless something positive happens or is announced over the weekend, there is little to lead us to believe Monday will be a strong day for bonds. But look for more details on next week's data and relevant events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-19-09

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory as investors digest the week's events. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 50 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness late yesterday.

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. This makes it likely that bonds will be influenced mostly by changes in the stock markets today. As long as the major stock indexes remain calm, I would expect bonds and mortgage rates to follow suit. If the stock markets give back this morning's gains, bonds may react favorably as the day goes on. However, afternoon weakness seems to be routine lately so we should go into the weekend with a cautious approach.

Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases. There are several scheduled for release that may influence mortgage pricing, but we also have an FOMC meeting on the calendar next week. In addition to those items, there is another round of Treasury auctions on the agenda that may also affect bond trading and mortgage rates.

None of the economic data or relevant events take place on Monday, so look for it to be a day of preparation for the week's events. Unless something positive happens or is announced over the weekend, there is little to lead us to believe Monday will be a strong day for bonds. But look for more details on next week's data and relevant events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-18-09

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory as yesterday's afternoon weakness continues into this morning's trading. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 82 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 17/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

The Labor Department reported early this morning that 608,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was slightly higher than what analysts had expected, but not enough of a difference to have much influence on mortgage pricing. 

The Conference Board gave us today's second piece of news with the release of its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for May. It revealed a 1.2% increase that exceeded forecasts and points towards a sharp increase in economic activity over the next three to six months. This is bad news for bonds because streng thening economic activity makes bonds less appealing to investors and leads to higher mortgage rates.

Yesterday's morning rally in bonds was short-lived as trading turned sour as the day went on. What looked like a potentially wonderful day for mortgage shoppers ended up being a bad day. A combination of a couple of factors led to the selling, including a weakening dollar that makes U.S. securities less valuable to international investors. The negative tone has carried into this morning's trading and with no important economic data this afternoon or tomorrow to stop the selling, we may see mortgage rates revise higher this afternoon and possibly tomorrow.

Read more...

Taxpayer Group Declares Readiness to Fight Tax Hike on Ballot

(Taxpayer activists: please call Gov. Brewer’s office at 602-542-4331)



FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE – June 17, 2009
Contact:  Tom Jenney (602) 478-0146, infoAZ@afphq.org <mailto:infoAZ@afphq.org>
 

Taxpayer Group Declares Readiness to Fight Tax Hike on Ballot   

AFP Arizona Deploys Gigantic Huge ATM Cash Machine at Capitol

PHOENIX –  At a news conference this morning at the state Capitol, the Arizona chapter of Americans for Prosperity rallied legislators against the billion-dollar sales tax hike proposed by Governor Jan Brewer, and declared its readiness to fight the measure all the way to election day, if necessary.
 
“ATM stands for Already Taxed to the Max,” said AFP Arizona director Tom Jenney, referring to the gigantic inflatable bank machine AFP Arizona installed on the Senate Lawn for the news conference.  “The Governor and the Big Spenders at the Legislature need to know that taxpayers should not be used as an ATM cash machine when politicians have overspent their budgets and are short on revenue,” Jenney said.  


AFP Arizona declared its readiness to bring the ATM machine everywhere in the state, “from Apache County to Yuma.”  He also said that the name on the ATM debit card could easily be changed from “Brewer” to that of any legislator who voted to refer the tax increase to the ballot. But Jenney added that sending the tax hike to the ballot would involve a “monumental waste of Arizona’s collective resources.”

 

Jenney called on Gov. Brewer to drop her “suicidal” tax hike proposal, and asked her to work with legislators on alternative solutions to the state’s budget crisis, such as reducing wasteful administrative overhead in school districts, selling state assets, and privatizing state government functions that could be performed more efficiently by private enterprise.

 

Jenney also asked taxpayer activists to call Gov. Brewer’s office, at (602) 542-4331.

 

Other speakers at the news conference on the Senate Lawn included Sen. Russell Pearce (R-Mesa), Sen. Pamela Gorman (R-Anthem), Reps. Frank Antenori and David Gowan of Tucson,  Rep. David Stevens of Cochise County, Dr. Byron Schlomach of the Goldwater Institute, and representatives from allied taxpayer-friendly organizations, such as the Arizona Free Enterprise Club, the PAChyderm Coalition, and the Coalition for a Conservative Majority.

 

Photos of the ATM machine are available on the AFP Arizona website (www.aztaxpayers.org <http://www.aztaxpayers.org/> ).

Read more...

VA Direct Home Loan Program

Read more...

The Prime Choice- USDA

Read more...

Retireze Home Loan- Reverse Mortgage Purchase

Read more...

FHA Rapid Direct- Streamline refinance

Read more...

FHA Extreme Makeover 203K

Read more...

1% Down Payment Program

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-17-09

Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of this morning's key inflation data. The stock markets are relatively flat with the Dow up 3 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points. The bond market is currently up 11/32, which will likely lead to an improvement if approximately .375 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates.

The Labor Department reported that their Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose on May 0.1%. They also said that the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices rose 0.1%. The overall index was expected to rise 0.3% while the core data matched forecasts. This indicates that prices at the consumer level of the economy remained in-check last month. Some market participants had feared that inflation may be strengthening and that the Fed may need to raise key short-term interest rates sometime in the near future.

Today's report also gave us an interesting stat that is worth mentio ning though. The 0.1% rise in the overall reading brought the total decline over the past 12 months down to 1.3%. That is the largest annual decline in the CPI since 1950. But it is no surprise that the biggest contributors to that fall are gas and energy prices. However, as long as these inflation indexes show results that indicate inflation is not gaining steam, investor and Fed concerns should remain minimal. This is good news because if the Fed becomes concerned about inflation, we would likely see bonds fall considerably and mortgage rates rise sharply.

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, will post this data at 10:00 AM ET. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. If it shows rapidly rising levels of activity, bond prices will probably drop, pushing mortgage rates slightly higher tomorrow morning. But, a weak er than expected reading could lead to lower mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a 0.9% increase.

The Labor Department will give us last week's unemployment figures. They are expected to say that 602,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This would be close to the previous week's number of claims. However, this data usually has little influence on bond trading and mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-16-09

Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory despite weaker than expected inflation and manufacturing news. The stock markets are showing modest gains, but that is good news for stock traders following yesterday's selling. The Dow is currently up 16 points while the Nasdaq has gained 12 points. The bond market is currently down 11/32, but we will still see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

May's Housing Starts was posted early this morning and gave us news that was not favorable for bonds. It showed a 17.2% rise in starts of new homes last month. This was a much higher increase than was expected and hints that the housing sector, at least new construction, may be stabilizing. Even the new permits portion of the report that indicates new starts in the immediate future exceeded forecasts. However, this data generally is not considered to be hig hly important unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Unfortunately, this variance was enough to influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

The second release of the day was May's Producer Price Index (PPI). It tracks inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It gave us much weaker than expected readings, meaning inflation was less of a threat than many had thought. The 0.2% increase in the overall index and the 0.1% decline in the more important core data were both favorable readings for bonds, especially when they were expected to come in at up 0.6% and up 0.1%. If prices are not increasing at the producer level, then it is more likely that prices at the more important consumer level of the economy will also remain under control.

Today's third and final report came later this morning when May's Industrial Production data was posted. It showed a 1.1% decline in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities when analysts were e xpecting to see a 0.8% drop. This is also good news for bonds because slowing manufacturing activity extends the likelihood of an economic recovery. Since bonds are generally more attractive in a weak economy, news that points toward a delay in the recovery is considered good news for bonds. This usually translates to lower mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow's only data is the week's most important and arguably the single most important report we see each month. The Labor Department will post May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early tomorrow morning. It is very similar to today's PPI, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.3% rise in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. Larger than expected increases will most likely lead to noticeable upward changes to mortgage rates tomorrow. However, weaker than expected readings could lead to rate improvements.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-15-09

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following strong selling in stocks. The major stock indexes are posting sizable losses with the Dow down 202 points and the Nasdaq down 52 points. The bond market is currently up 13/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point over Friday's morning rates.

The first data of the week comes tomorrow with the release of three relevant reports. The day's reports are a broad spectrum of data ranging from housing figures to manufacturing output to an important inflation reading. Their importance to the markets also is a wide variety. The first report of the day is May's Housing Starts that tracks starts of new home projects. It is the week's least important report and likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from the 5.5% increase that has been forecasted.

The second is one of the two highly important reports of the we ek. May's Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be posted early tomorrow morning. It helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings of this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A large increase could raise concern about inflation rising as soon as the economy pulls out of the recession. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes investors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.6% in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data. It will not take much of a variance from forecasts for the markets to react, which would most likely lead to changes in mortgage rates. 

The third and final piece of dat a scheduled for Tuesday is May's Industrial Production. This report will be released at 9:15 AM ET and is considered to be moderately important. It measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. If it reveals that production is rising, concerns of manufacturing strength may come into play in the bond market. A larger than expected 0.8% decline would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected and should help push mortgage rates lower. That is assuming that the PPI doesn't surprise us. 

Overall, look for tomorrow to be the biggest day of the week. Not just because it brings the release of three of the five reports, but also because it brings us the PPI that is considered to be a key inflation reading. Wednesday is also very important with the CPI being posted, so look for the most movement in rates during the middle part of the week.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-14-09

This week is fairly busy with five economic reports scheduled to be released. Two of the five are considered to be of high importance to the markets and mortgage rates. The remaining three are of interest to the markets but likely will not cause a large change in mortgage rates unless they vary greatly from forecasts.

The first data of the week comes Tuesday when there are three reports scheduled to be posted. The day's reports are a broad spectrum of data ranging from housing figures to manufacturing output to an important inflation reading. Their importance to the markets also is a wide variety. The first report of the day is May's Housing Starts that tracks starts of new home projects. It is the week's least important report and likely will not affect mortgage rates unless its results vary greatly from the 5.5% increase that has been forecasted.

The second is one of the two highly important reports of the week. May's Producer Price Index (PPI ) will also be posted early Tuesday morning. It helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two readings of this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A large increase could raise concern about inflation rising as soon as the economy pulls out of the recession. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes investors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.6% in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data. It will not take much of a variance from forecasts for the markets to react, which would most likely lead to changes in mortgage rates. 

The third and final piece of data scheduled for T uesday is May's Industrial Production. This report will be released at 9:15 AM ET and is considered to be moderately important. It measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us a fairly important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. If it reveals that production is rising, concerns of manufacturing strength may come into play in the bond market. A larger than expected 0.8% decline would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected and should help push mortgage rates lower. That is assuming that the PPI doesn't surprise us. 

Wednesday's only data is the week's most important and arguably the single most important report we see each month. This is when we will get May's Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is very similar to Tuesday's PPI, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 0.3% rise in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data. Larger than expected increases will most likely lead to noticeable upward changes to mortgage rates Wednesday.

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted late Thursday morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, will post this data. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. If it shows rapidly rising levels of activity, bond prices will probably drop, pushing mortgage rates higher Thursday morning. But, a weaker than expected reading could lead to lower mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a 0.9% increase.

Overall, look for Tuesday to be the big day of the week. Not just because it brings the release of three of the five reports, but also because it brings us the PPI that is considered to be a key inflation reading. Wednesday is also very important with the CPI being posted, so look for the most movement in rates during the middle part of the week.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-12-09

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday afternoon's rally. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 9 points and the Nasdaq down 20 points. The bond market is currently up 15/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .375 -.500 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

Today's only relevant economic data came from the University of Michigan who posted their Index of Consumer Sentiment for June late this morning. It revealed a reading of 69.0 that fell between last month's final reading of 68.7 and forecasts of 69.5. This means surveyed consumers were a little more optimistic about their own financial situations than last month, but slightly less optimistic than analysts had expected. But the difference between forecasts and the actual reading was not wide enough to influence bond trading or mortgage rates this morning.

Today's buying in bonds is a carryover from yesterday's rally that began when the results of the 30-year Bond auction were posted. The sale was met with a very strong demand, making existing securities more attractive to investors. If that momentum can carry into next week, we should see mortgage rates recover even more of their recent increases.

Next week is fairly active in terms of economic releases with relevant data being posted three of the five days. There are two key inflation readings on the calendar that will likely be the biggest news of the week, but none of the relevant news is scheduled to be released Monday. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-11-09 Afternoon Update

The bond market has gone into rally mode after today's 30-year Bond auction was met with a strong demand from investors. Despite continued stock strength (Dow up 113 points and Nasdaq up 25 points), the bond market has moved significantly from its flat open to currently stand up 26/32. This should improve this afternoon's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. However, watch the indexes closely as this rally may be short-lived if there are no other reports or events to continue its support.

Yesterday's 10-year Note auction was actually received fairly well, but a couple of complex things transpired with bidding and the rates they were bought that led to selling after the results were posted. Today's sale was much more cut-and-dry and well received. 

This morning's data was pretty uneventful. May's Retail Sales data showed a 0.5% increase in sales, which matched forecasts. The portion of the report that tracks sales excluding volatile auto sales revealed a higher than expected increase. But this news did not have much influence on this morning's trading or mortgage rates.

The Labor Department reported that 601,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was lower than the 615,000 that many were expecting, but this data is not important enough to heavily impact trading or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The last report of the week is June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 69.5. A smaller than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds, but since this report is only moderately important it likely will not influence mortgage rates considerably.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-11-09

Thursday's bond market has opened flat after this morning's economic data failed to give us any major surprises. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 70 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged form yesterday's close, but we will still likely see a slight increase in mortgage pricing due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

Yesterday's afternoon weakness came partly as a result the Treasury auction results and the Fed Beige Book contents. Yesterday's 10-year Note auction was actually received fairly well, but a couple of complex things transpired with bidding and the rates they were bought that led to selling after the results were posted. We also, have a 30-year Bond sale today to watch out for.

The Fed Beige Book revealed that the economy continued to weaken in most regions through May, but that some regions had reported it to be slowing. The employment sector remained flat and most regions reported a still softening housing market. Overall, the report did not surprise many, but the slower pace of the weakening economy led some to believe that the bottom may be near. This supports the theory that the economy may pull out of the recession later this year.

This morning's data was pretty uneventful. May's Retail Sales data showed a 0.5% increase in sales, which matched forecasts. The portion of the report that tracks sales excluding volatile auto sales revealed a higher than expected increase. But this news did not have much influence on this morning's trading or mortgage rates.

The Labor Department reported that 601,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was lower than the 615,000 that many were expecting, but this data is not important enough to heavily impact trading or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

The last report of the week is June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment late tomorrow morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 69.5. A smaller than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds, but since this report is only moderately important it likely will not influence mortgage rates considerably.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-10-09

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following news from overseas that Russia will start selling some of its U.S. Treasury Securities it currently holds. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow and Nasdaq both down approximately 14 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by .250 of a discount point.

April's Goods and Services Trade Balance was released this morning, revealing a $29.2 billion trade deficit. This was very close to forecasts, therefore it has had little impact on this morning's bond trading or mortgage rates.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book this afternoon. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings in determining monetary policy. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates cou ld drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher later today. 

Also contributing to this morning's bond losses is today's 10-year Treasury Note auction. Traders that are participating in these sales often sell holdings before the auctions for a couple of strategic purposes. If the sale is met with a strong demand from investors, we may see bond prices move higher this afternoon?assuming the Beige Book doesn't give us negative surprises. However, a lackluster interest could lead to more selling and possibly higher mortgage rates.

May's Retail Sales data will be released tomorrow morning. This report measures consumer spending, which is important to the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see that sales rose 0.5% last month. A smaller than expected rise in sales would be good news for the bond market and could lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-09-09

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory, recovering some of yesterday's late losses. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 30 points and the Nasdaq up 8 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, but due to weakness late yesterday we will likely see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates. 

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow brings us the first of this week's relevant data. April's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be posted early tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasters are expecting to see a $29.0 billion deficit.

The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book tomorrow afternoon. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon h eavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings in determining monetary policy. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher tomorrow afternoon. 

Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets, but the most action will probably come in the latter days. I think that Thursday will be the single most important day of the week, but as we saw last week, we don't need significant news from economic reports for the markets to move heavily and mortgage rates to change. Accordingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional?particularly after last week's selling.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-08-09

Monday's bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news scheduled and a negative open in stocks. The stock markets are starting the week off by giving back some of its recent gains. The Dow is down 90 points while the Nasdaq has lost 26 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from Friday's close, but we still may see a slight improvement in mortgage pricing compared to Friday's morning rates.

This week brings us the release of four pieces of data for the markets to digest. The most important news will be posted late in the week, so we may see the most movement in rates during those days. The first part of the week will likely be driven by stock market gains or losses, as we have seen so far this morning.

The week's first but least important data is April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report Wednesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasters are expecting to see a $28.7 billion deficit.

Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings to determine monetary policy. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon. 

Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets, but the most action will probably come in the latter days. I think that Thursday will be the single most important day of the week, but as we saw last week, we don't need significant news from economic reports for the markets to move heavily and mortgage rates to change. Accor dingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional?particularly after last week's selling.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-07-09

This week brings us the release of four pieces of data for the markets to digest. The most important news will be posted late in the week, so we may see the most movement in rates during those days. The first part of the week will likely be driven by stock market gains or losses.

The week's first but least important data is April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report Wednesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasters are expecting to see a $28.7 billion deficit.

Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings to determine monetary policy. If it shows surprisingly softer economic activity, the bond market may thrive a nd mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon. 

May's Retail Sales data will be released Thursday morning. This report measures consumer spending, which is important to the bond market because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Analysts are expecting to see that sales rose 0.3% last month. A smaller than expected rise in sales would be good news for the bond market and could lead to lower mortgage rates Thursday.

The last report of the week is June's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. It is expected to show a reading of 68.6. A small than expected reading would be considered good news for bonds, but since this report is only moderately important it likely will not influence mortgage rates considerably.

Also worth noting are two relevant Treasury auctions scheduled for this week. The 10-year Treasury Note sale is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year Bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. 

Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets, but the most action will probably come in the latter days. I think that Thursday will be the single most important day of the week, but as we saw last week, we don't need significant news from economic reports for the markets to move heavily and mortgage rates to change. Accordingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional?particularly after last week's selling.

Read more...

Market Update

PHOENIX is one of the most popular cities in the entire United States!

* 1,968 single family detached homes were purchased in March 2009 vs. 629 last year (March 2008).

* The average price paid was $103,953 vs. $283,472 last year.

* The median price came in at $62,100 vs. $227,900 last year.

* The ratio of purchase price to list price was 105% vs. 97% last year.

* 1,586 of the homes (81%) were bank owned vs. 157 homes (25%) last year.

* The average time on the market was 86 days vs. 104 days last year.

* There were 12,966 Active single family listings vs. 13,092 last year.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-05-09

Friday's bond market has opened down sharply again following mixed results in today's Employment report. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 35 points but the Nasdaq down 1 point. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .750 of a discount point compared to yesterday's morning rates.

The Labor Department released May's employment figures this morning, showing a higher than expected unemployment rate of 9.4% but a decline in payrolls of 345,000 that was smaller than expected. Analysts had forecasted a 9.2% unemployment rate and a drop in jobs of approximately 520,000. The 9.4% rate of unemployment is a 26-year high, but the job loss number was the smallest decline since September.

It appears that the job loss number is having the biggest influence on trading this morning. The smaller figure indicates that job cuts may be slowing, which is important for the economy to st art to pull out of the recession. It fuels the theory that the economy may begin to recover later this year. This is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a slowing economy usually makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors. This news, coupled with concern about the next debt offering from the Fed has fueled another morning of bond selling. 

This has not been a pleasant week for mortgage shoppers with rates ending the week much higher than it began. Next week is moderately important in terms of economic reports. There are a couple worth noting but they don't start until the middle of the week. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday, so there is little news to help change the current momentum in bonds. This could lead to further increases in rates until we get to the data. Look for more details on next week's events that may influence trading and rates in Sunday's weekly preview.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-04-09

Thursday's bond market has opened down sharply as investors prepare for tomorrow's economic data and upcoming debt sales. The stock markets are showing minor gains with the Dow up 26 points and the Nasdaq up 9 points. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

This morning's release of revised figures on 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs showed a larger than expected increase of a 1.6% gain. Analysts were expecting to see a 1.2% increase, meaning workers were more productive in the quarter than previously thought. However, the costs reading revealed a slight upward revision that is considered bad news for bonds and rates. But the bottom line is that this data failed to influence bond trading or mortgage rates this morning.

The Labor Department reported that 621,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was very close to for ecasts and has had little impact on today's rates. The biggest influence on trading today is concern about the amount of debt the Fed is going to announce that is coming to sale in the immediate future.

Tomorrow's sole report is arguably the single most important report that we see each month. The Labor Department will post May's Employment data during early trading. This report gives us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate climb to 9.2% with approximately 520,000 jobs lost during the month. 

A higher than expected increase in the unemployment rate and a larger drop in payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates tomorrow. However, if we see stronger than expected numbers, it could lead to a spike in mortgage rates tomorrow.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-03-09

Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are well into negative ground with the Dow down 82 points and the Nasdaq down 13 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which with yesterday's late gains should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .500 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us April's Factory Orders data this morning, revealing a 0.7% increase. This was stronger than expected, but a 1.0% downward revision to March's orders offset that surprise increase.

The Institute for Supply Management released its services index this morning also. It was expected to show a reading of 45.0, but came in at 44.0. This was not enough of a variance to influence bond trading or mortgage rates this morning.

Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before a House Budget Committee this morning, but his prepared statement didn't reveal any signific ant surprises. He indicated that they expect the economy to begin to strengthen late this year, but there are factors such rising unemployment that may impact the recovery. Overall, nothing of significance that we had not heard before.

The revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs report will be released morning along with last week's unemployment figures. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. It is believed that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 0.8% rate, but I don't think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from its forecasted revised reading of 1.2%.

The Labor Department is expected to say that 620,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. With May's monthly figures co ming Friday morning, any noticeable difference between forecasts and the actual number could create volatility in the markets as investors adjust their forecasts for Friday's release.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-02-09

Tuesday's bond market has opened down slightly as stocks show modest gains. The stock markets are holding yesterday's gains with the Dow up 27 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 4/32, but we will still see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning's rates due to yesterday's heavy selling.

There is no relevant economic data being posted today. I am expecting to see a fairly calm day as investors await the rest of the week's reports. The next relevant news comes tomorrow morning when the Commerce Department releases April's Factory Orders. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much change in rates this month. Current forecasts are expecting to see an increase in orders of 0 .3%. 

The second report of the day may have a noticeable impact on the markets or be a non-factor depending on its results. The Institute for Supply Management will release its services index late Wednesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 45.0, with the same principals as Monday's manufacturing index. If this reading varies greatly from forecasts, we may see volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. However, if its results are in the general area of expectations, it will likely have no influence on the markets and mortgage pricing.

Thursday's reports are moderately important, but the markets will likely be looking towards Friday's Employment report before making a significant move either direction. Until we get to Friday, the stock markets will probably have more of an influence on bond trading and mortgage rates than Wednesday and Thursday's economic data will. As long as the major stock index remain fairly calm, mortgage rates will l ikely follow suit.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 6-01-09

Monday's bond market has opened down sharply following stronger than expected economic news and a significant rally in stocks. The Dow is currently up over 200 points while the Nasdaq has gained 50 points. This has led to heavy selling in bonds, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note down 60/32. However, the impact on this morning's mortgage rates will likely be much less than one may expect. We will probably see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning's rates compared to Friday's morning rates due to significant strength late Friday.

April's Personal Income and Outlays data was posted at 8:30 AM, but it showed stronger than expected readings in both portions. It revealed an increase in income of 0.5%, which was a large variance form the 0.2% decline that forecasted. The surprise in the spending reading was only by .1%, but the report indicated that consumer ability to spend grew rapidly and that they were spending more than thought. This is bad news for bonds because increases in consumer spending translates into economic growth. The spike in income may also raise wage-inflation concerns once the economy begins to recover.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index also exceeded forecasts, however, by a much more moderate amount. The index rose to 42.8 last month, compared to predictions of 42.3. This means that surveyed manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions than in April and by a wider margin than analysts had expected. This is also bad news for bonds because expanding manufacturing activity means the economy may be stabilizing.

There is no relevant data due to be posted tomorrow, but Wednesday has two reports scheduled for release. The first and possibly the only relevant news is the Commerce Department's release of April's Factory Orders data late morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Du rable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much change in rates this month. Current forecasts are expecting to see an increase in orders of 0.3%.

The second report of the day may have a noticeable impact on the markets or be a non-factor depending on its results. The Institute for Supply Management will release its services index late Wednesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 45.0, with the same principals as Monday's manufacturing index. If this reading varies greatly from forecasts, we may see volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. However, if its results are in the general area of expectations, it will likely have no influence on the markets and mortgage pricing.

Read more...

Mortgage Rate Updates 5-31-09

This week brings us the release of a couple important pieces of economic data in addition to some moderately important reports. The first data is April's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM tomorrow. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. An increase in income means that consumers have more money available to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can cause movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are showing a 0.2% decline in income and spending. Weaker readings would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index will be posted late tomorrow morning. This highly important index measures manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed manufacturing executives felt that business worsened during the month than those who felt it had improv ed. Analysts are expecting to see a 42.0 reading in this month's release, meaning that sentiment strengthened slightly during May. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers while an unexpected increase could contribute to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

There is no relevant data due to be posted Tuesday, but Wednesday has two reports scheduled for release. The first and possibly the only relevant news is the Commerce Department's release of April's Factory Orders data late morning. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much change in rates this month. Current forecasts are expecting to see an increase in orders of 0.3%. 

The second report of the day may have a noticeable impact on the markets or be a non-factor depending on its results. The Institute for Supply Management will release its services index late Wednesday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 45.0, with the same principals as Monday's manufacturing index. If this reading varies greatly from forecasts, we may see volatility in the markets and mortgage rates. However, if its results are in the general area of expectations, it will likely have no influence on the markets and mortgage pricing.

The revised 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs report will be released Thursday morning. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be a measurement of wage inflation. It is believed that the economy can grow with low inflationary pressures when productivity is high. Last month's preliminary reading revealed a 0.8% rate, but I don't think this piece of data will have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless i t varies greatly from its forecasted revised reading of 1.2%. 

Friday's sole report is arguably the single most important report that we see each month. The Labor Department will post May's Employment data early Friday morning. This report gives us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate climb to 9.2% with approximately 550,000 jobs lost during the month. A higher than expected increase in the unemployment rate and a larger drop in payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger than expected numbers may lead to a spike in mortgage rates Friday.

Overall, tomorrow or Friday are likely to be the most important days of the week as they bring us the two most important reports on the agenda. If they give us weaker than expect ed results, we will probably close the week with lower mortgage rates than tomorrow's opening levels. However, if we see stronger than expected readings in those two releases, I expect mortgage rates to move higher on the week.

Read more...